Danske Bank (Markets) ranked by Bloomberg as the globally most accurate commodities forecaster over the last two years.
In its most recent ranking Bloomberg ranks Danske Bank as the most accurate forecaster in several categories within commodities.
Chief Analyst Arne Lohmann Rasmussen and Senior Analyst Christin Tuxen of Danske Markets are ranked an undisputed no 1. in forecasting Brent crude oil, zinc, industrial metals and copper together. Topped by a no. 1 place in forecasting ICE Brent crude oil.
See the Bloomberg rankings here:
Bloomberg best forecaster of energy
Bloomberg best forecaster of precious metals
Arne Lohmann, Head of Rates, FX & Commodities Strategy, says:
“We’re delighted to see Danske be recognized for our precise and accurate forecast of commodities over a period of two years – that is a clear indication of our long-term capability in Commodities forecasting. And of course, we’re extremely proud of Christin’s expertise in this area.”
Commenting on the excellent rankings on behalf of Danske Bank, Christin Tuxen says:
”It’s great to see that our efforts in the area of commodities forecasting is becoming increasingly recognized internationally. We’re producing monthly commodity forecasts which are distributed to investors and stakeholders. And just last week we launched our brand new quarterly commodities publication, which will be released around the end of each quarter”.
Some of the special tools that Danske Markets have developed for forecasting commodity-price include fair-value models based on statistical techniques that incorporate both short- and long-term characteristics of the prices of raw materials.
”We use the indications of over- or undervaluation that these provide at a given point in time to decide on our forecasts for the future – and clients find these models very useful in guiding their trading decisions”.
Headlines from the Commodities Quarterly released on April 19:
Rising energy costs support metals and grains alike
- We still see commodities supported by higher energy costs and a weaker dollar in the near term. Headwinds, however, include fading global growth momentum, negative feedback between economic activity and oil, and a stronger dollar beyond 6M.
- We have raised our oil forecast to USD116 in 2011 (previously USD111) and USD119 (prev. USD112) in 2012 as OPEC appears reluctant to increase supplies for now.
- We have taken our copper forecasts higher as near-term demand destruction looks set to be limited. Our aluminium forecasts have also been increased somewhat throughout 2011-12 as higher energy costs give support.
- We have raised our corn forecast significantly this time as the link with rising oil prices is becoming very pronounced, but our wheat and soybeans projections have been left unchanged.
Read the full Quarterly Commodities publication here